# Paraguay Presidential Election Winner: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Paraguay Presidential Election Winner". Pedro Alliana leads at 58.6%. Next is Miguel Prieto at 20.1%. $3K has traded across 15 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by May 1, 2028.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-06T05:20:03Z (just now)
- Expected to resolve by: May 1, 2028
- Volume traded: $3K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Pedro Alliana | 58.6% | 21.5% | 71% | 49.5 pts |
| Miguel Prieto | 20.1% | 21.5% | 16% | 5.5 pts |
| Ricardo Estigarribia | 18.6% | 24.5% | 1% | 23.5 pts |
| Eduardo Nakayama | 18.3% | 24% | 1% | 23.0 pts |
| Basilio Núñez | 16% | 29.5% | 2.5% | 27.0 pts |
| Juan Carlos Baruja | 14.5% | 26.5% | 2.5% | 24.0 pts |
| Yolanda Paredes | 13.8% | 25% | 2.5% | 22.5 pts |
| Raúl Latorre | 12% | 21.5% | 2.5% | 19.0 pts |
| Alberto Martínez Simón | 6.3% | 10% | 2.5% | 7.5 pts |
| Paraguayo Cubas | 5% | 5% | — | not on both |
| Lilian Samaniego | 4.5% | 6.5% | 2.5% | 4.0 pts |
| Arnoldo Wiens | 4.3% | 5.5% | 1% | 4.5 pts |
| Kattya González | 4.2% | 6% | 2.5% | 3.5 pts |
| Celeste Amarilla | 4% | 5.5% | 2.5% | 3.0 pts |
| Luis Pettengill | 2.6% | 3.2% | 1% | 2.1 pts |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [tsje.gov.py](https://www.tsje.gov.py/).
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Presidency of the Republic of Paraguay](https://www.presidencia.gov.py/), [Honorable Cámara de Diputados del Paraguay](https://diputados.gov.py/), [Honorable Cámara de Senadores del Paraguay](https://www.senado.gov.py/).

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Paraguayan Presidential election. 

This market includes any potential second round. 

If the results are not known definitively by April 30, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Paraguay government sources, including the Tribunal Superior de Justicia Electoral (https://www.tsje.gov.py/).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/paraguay-presidential-election-winner
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/paraguay-presidential-election-winner?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxparaguaynext?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/paraguay-presidential-election-winner

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.