# Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (11/2 - 11/8): prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (11/2 - 11/8)". November 4 leads at 28%. Next is November 7 at 19%. $17.9M has traded across 8 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 10, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T17:40:00Z (3 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 10, 2026
- Volume traded: $17.9M
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| November 4 | 28% | — | 28% | not on both |
| November 7 | 19% | — | 19% | not on both |
| November 6 | 16% | — | 16% | not on both |
| November 8 | 16% | — | 16% | not on both |
| November 5 | 15% | — | 15% | not on both |
| Yes | 9.4% | 11% | — | not on both |
| November 3 | 8% | — | 8% | not on both |
| November 2 | 3% | — | 3% | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [portwatch.imf.org](https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730).
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [IMF PortWatch](https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/chokepoint6).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/peak-strait-of-hormuz-traffic-day-112-118
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-november-30-20260810151158765?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxhormuzmax?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/peak-strait-of-hormuz-traffic-day-112-118

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.