# Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (11/16 - 11/22): prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (11/16 - 11/22)". No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 leads at 94.5%. Next is Above 3 at 92%. $20.7M has traded across 13 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 24, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-15T05:23:41Z (12 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 24, 2026
- Volume traded: $20.7M
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 | 94.5% | 94.5% | — | not on both |
| Above 3 | 92% | — | 92% | not on both |
| Above 4 | 83% | — | 83% | not on both |
| Above 5 | 65% | — | 65% | not on both |
| Above 6 | 46% | — | 46% | not on both |
| Above 7 | 32% | — | 32% | not on both |
| Above 8 | 15.5% | — | 15.5% | not on both |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | 5.5% | 5.5% | — | not on both |
| Above 9 | 3% | — | 3% | not on both |
| December | 2.8% | 2.8% | — | not on both |
| Above 10 | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |
| November | 1.9% | 1.9% | — | not on both |
| Yes | 1.4% | 1.4% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [portwatch.imf.org](https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730).
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [IMF PortWatch](https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/chokepoint6).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/peak-traffic-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-1116-1122
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/which-month-will-strait-of-hormuz-traffic-return-to-normal-20260702155718114?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxhormuzpeak?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/peak-traffic-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-1116-1122

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.