# Pennsylvania's 15th District margin of victory: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Pennsylvania's 15th District margin of victory". Republican 25-30% leads at 97.5%. Next is Thompson, 26+ pts at 72%. $20K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T21:17:00Z (2 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 3, 2027
- Volume traded: $20K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: other

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Republican 25-30% | 97.5% | 97.5% | — | not on both |
| Thompson, 26+ pts | 72% | — | 72% | not on both |
| Thompson, 32+ pts | 55.4% | — | 55.4% | not on both |
| Thompson, 23+ pts | 54.5% | — | 54.5% | not on both |
| Thompson, 29+ pts | 52% | — | 52% | not on both |
| Thompson, 47+ pts | 49.4% | — | 49.4% | not on both |
| Thompson, 44+ pts | 49.4% | — | 49.4% | not on both |
| Thompson, 35+ pts | 49% | — | 49% | not on both |
| Thompson, 41+ pts | 24% | — | 24% | not on both |
| Thompson, 38+ pts | 23% | — | 23% | not on both |
| Republican 0-10% | 3.4% | 3.4% | — | not on both |
| Republican 40-45% | 2.8% | 2.8% | — | not on both |
| Republican 20-25% | 2.6% | 2.6% | — | not on both |
| Republican 30-35% | 2.5% | 2.5% | — | not on both |
| Republican 35-40% | 2.4% | 2.4% | — | not on both |
| Republican 45-50% | 2.3% | 2.3% | — | not on both |
| Republican 10-20% | 1.9% | 1.9% | — | not on both |
| Republican 50%+ | 1.3% | 1.3% | — | not on both |
| Democrat Wins | 0.5% | 0.5% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Pennsylvania Department of State](https://www.pa.gov/agencies/dos).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/pennsylvanias-15th-district-margin-of-victory
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/pa-15-house-margin-of-victory-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/pennsylvanias-15th-district-margin-of-victory

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.