# Precipitation in Hong Kong in November?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Precipitation in Hong Kong in November?". 60-95mm leads at 25.2%. Next is 5mm at 23.7%. $2K has traded across 7 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 8, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T21:19:00Z (1 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Feb 8, 2027
- Volume traded: $2K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: other

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 60-95mm | 25.2% | 35% |
| 5mm | 23.7% | 33% |
| 25-35mm | 19.4% | 27% |
| 35-60mm | 16.9% | 23.5% |
| 95mm+ | 5.8% | 8% |
| 5-10mm | 5% | 7% |
| 10-25mm | 4% | 5.5% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume, with each venue's margin removed so outcomes add to 100%. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between November 1 and November 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.

If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in November 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.

If the relevant data is not available by February 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/precipitation-in-hong-kong-in-november
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/precipitation-in-hong-kong-in-november?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/precipitation-in-hong-kong-in-november

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.