# Pro Football: Next Head Coach Fired: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Pro Football: Next Head Coach Fired". Aaron Glenn leads at 36.8%. Next is Dan Quinn at 35.3%. $180K has traded across 67 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 16, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T21:13:11Z (58 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Feb 16, 2027
- Volume traded: $180K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: sports

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Aaron Glenn | 36.8% | 47.5% | 26% | 21.5 pts |
| Dan Quinn | 35.3% | 47.5% | 23% | 24.5 pts |
| Nick Sirianni | 34.2% | 47.5% | 21% | 26.5 pts |
| Mike Macdonald | 32.5% | 43% | 1% | 42.0 pts |
| Shane Steichen | 31.3% | 47.5% | 15% | 32.5 pts |
| Jim Harbaugh | 30.8% | 47.5% | 14% | 33.5 pts |
| Brian Schottenheimer | 28.8% | 47.5% | 10% | 37.5 pts |
| Kellen Moore | 28.3% | 42.5% | 14% | 28.5 pts |
| Todd Monken | 27% | 43.5% | 1% | 42.5 pts |
| Dan Campbell | 26.7% | 43.5% | 1% | 42.5 pts |
| G.J. Kinne | 25.8% | — | 1.5% | not on both |
| Jimbo Fisher | 25.8% | — | 0.5% | not on both |
| Zac Taylor | 25% | 48% | 2% | 46.0 pts |
| Bryant Haines | 25% | — | 25% | not on both |
| Kenny Dillingham | 25% | — | 25% | not on both |
| Lance Taylor | 25% | — | 25% | not on both |
| Rhett Lashlee | 25% | — | 25% | not on both |
| Zach Kittley | 25% | — | 25% | not on both |
| DeMeco Ryans | 24.8% | 47.5% | 2% | 45.5 pts |
| Sean McVay | 24.5% | 48% | 1% | 47.0 pts |
| Blake Baker | 24.5% | — | 24.5% | not on both |
| Dave Canales | 24.3% | 47.5% | 1% | 46.5 pts |
| Jeff Hafley | 24.3% | 47.5% | 1% | 46.5 pts |
| Jim Harbaugh | 24.3% | 47.5% | 1% | 46.5 pts |
| Matt LaFleur | 24.3% | 47.5% | 1% | 46.5 pts |
| Mike Vrabel | 24.3% | 47.5% | 1% | 46.5 pts |
| Robert Saleh | 24.3% | 47.5% | 1% | 46.5 pts |
| Klint Kubiak | 24% | 47.5% | 0.5% | 47.0 pts |
| Liam Coen | 24% | 47.5% | 0.5% | 47.0 pts |
| Andy Reid | 22.5% | 44.5% | 0.5% | 44.0 pts |
| Ben Johnson | 22.5% | 44.5% | 0.5% | 44.0 pts |
| Kyle Shanahan | 22.5% | 44.5% | 0.5% | 44.0 pts |
| Sean Payton | 22.5% | 44.5% | 0.5% | 44.0 pts |
| Todd Bowles | 22.3% | 42.5% | 2% | 40.5 pts |
| Joe Brady | 22% | 43.5% | 0.5% | 43.0 pts |
| Rick Stockstill | 22% | — | 22% | not on both |
| Matt LaFleur | 21.8% | 42.5% | 1% | 41.5 pts |
| Jesse Minter | 21.5% | 42.5% | 0.5% | 42.0 pts |
| Kevin Stefanski | 21.5% | 42.5% | 0.5% | 42.0 pts |
| Charles Huff | 21% | — | 17% | not on both |

Showing the top 40 of 67 outcomes. 
"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [ABC](https://abcnews.go.com/), [Associated Press](https://apnews.com), [The Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/).

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve according to the next NFL head coach fired from market creation to the conclusion of the 2026-27 NFL season.

A head coach will be considered fired if their team officially announces that they have been fired, demoted, dismissed, or relieved of their duties, including a mutual parting of ways announced by the team. Voluntary resignations and retirements will not count.

If two or more head coaches are fired on the same day, this market will resolve to the coach whose firing was officially announced first.

If the next head coach fired is not listed, or if no NFL head coach is fired by February 15, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL and/or its teams; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/pro-football-next-head-coach-fired
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/pro-football-next-head-coach-fired-2026-27?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxncaafnextcoach?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/pro-football-next-head-coach-fired

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.