# Quito mayoral election winner?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Quito mayoral election winner?". Pabel Muñoz leads at 34%. Next is Harold Burbano at 17.3%. $8K has traded across 10 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 29, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T22:06:00Z (5 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 29, 2027
- Volume traded: $8K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Pabel Muñoz | 34% | 41% | 42% | 1.0 pts |
| Harold Burbano | 17.3% | 22% | 18% | 4.0 pts |
| Wilson Merino | 15.7% | 20% | 16% | 4.0 pts |
| Jorge Yunda | 11.9% | 13% | 19% | 6.0 pts |
| Linda Romero | 6.4% | 7% | 10% | 3.0 pts |
| Carla Larrea | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5% | 0.5 pts |
| César Díaz | 3.3% | 3.1% | 7% | 3.9 pts |
| Paúl Desamblanc | 3.2% | 3.9% | — | not on both |
| Galo Almeida | 2.3% | 2.8% | — | not on both |
| Bernardo Jijón | 2.1% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 1.6 pts |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume, with each venue's margin removed so outcomes add to 100%. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [National Electoral Council of Ecuador](https://www.cne.gob.ec/).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/quito-mayoral-election-winner-1
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/quito-mayoral-election-winner-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxquitomayor?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/quito-mayoral-election-winner-1

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.