# Quito Mayoral Election Winner: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Quito Mayoral Election Winner". Pabel Muñoz leads at 31.8%. Next is Jorge Yunda at 15.7%. $6K has traded across 10 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 30, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-03T08:42:21Z (7 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 30, 2026
- Volume traded: $6K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Pabel Muñoz | 31.8% | 40% | 44% | 4.0 pts |
| Jorge Yunda | 15.7% | 20.5% | 20% | 0.5 pts |
| Wilson Merino | 15.1% | 22% | 13% | 9.0 pts |
| Harold Burbano | 11.2% | 15% | 13% | 2.0 pts |
| Carla Larrea | 8.4% | 11.5% | 9% | 2.5 pts |
| Linda Romero | 5.5% | 9% | 2% | 7.0 pts |
| César Díaz | 4.6% | 5.5% | 7% | 1.5 pts |
| Paúl Desamblanc | 3.2% | 4.3% | — | not on both |
| Bernardo Jijón | 2.6% | 3% | 3.5% | 0.5 pts |
| Galo Almeida | 1.9% | 2.6% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume, with each venue's margin removed so outcomes add to 100%. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [National Electoral Council of Ecuador](https://www.cne.gob.ec/).

## Settlement rules

The 2026 Quito, Ecuador mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on November 29, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Quito as a result of this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Ecuadorian government, including the National Electoral Council (Consejo Nacional Electoral, CNE, https://www.cne.gob.ec) and the Contentious Electoral Tribunal (Tribunal Contencioso Electoral, TCE, https://www.tce.gob.ec).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/quito-mayoral-election-winner
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/quito-mayoral-election-winner-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxquitomayor?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/quito-mayoral-election-winner

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.