# Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz". Carlos Alcaraz leads at 83%. Next is Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set Handicap +/-1.5 at 74.5%. $49K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 11, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T18:05:00Z (6 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 11, 2026
- Volume traded: $49K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: sports

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Carlos Alcaraz | 83% | — | 83% | not on both |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 74.5% | 74.5% | — | not on both |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 62% | 62% | — | not on both |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 54% | 54% | — | not on both |
| Completed Match | 51% | 51% | — | not on both |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% | 50% | — | not on both |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% | 50% | — | not on both |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% | 50% | — | not on both |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 49% | 49% | — | not on both |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 47% | 47% | — | not on both |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 41.5% | 41.5% | — | not on both |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 40.5% | 40.5% | — | not on both |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 30% | 30% | — | not on both |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 26% | 26% | — | not on both |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 25.5% | 25.5% | — | not on both |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 24.5% | 24.5% | — | not on both |
| Michelsen | 17.7% | 17.5% | 18% | 0.5 pts |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [atptour.com](https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current).
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [ATP](https://www.atptour.com/).

## Settlement rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Alex Michelsen and Carlos Alcaraz in the Rolex Paris Masters, originally scheduled for November 4, 2026 at 1:00PM ET.

This market will resolve to 'Alex Michelsen' if Alex Michelsen advances against Carlos Alcaraz.

This market will resolve to 'Carlos Alcaraz' if Carlos Alcaraz advances against Alex Michelsen.

If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50.

If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.

If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/rolex-paris-masters-alex-michelsen-vs-carlos-alcaraz
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/atp-michels-alcaraz-2026-11-04?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxatpmatch?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/rolex-paris-masters-alex-michelsen-vs-carlos-alcaraz

---
Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.