# Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche". Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche Game Spread +/-3.5 leads at 76%. Next is Musetti at 73.7%. $24K has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 12, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-05T12:53:00Z (1 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 12, 2026
- Volume traded: $24K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: sports

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche Game Spread +/-3.5 | 76% | 76% | — | not on both |
| Musetti | 73.7% | 73.5% | 74% | 0.5 pts |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche Game Spread +/-3.5 | 68.5% | 68.5% | — | not on both |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche Game Spread +/-3.5 | 66.5% | 66.5% | — | not on both |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche Game Spread +/-3.5 | 57% | 57% | — | not on both |
| Completed Match | 52% | 52% | — | not on both |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche Game Spread +/-3.5 | 51% | 51% | — | not on both |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche Game Spread +/-3.5 | 50% | 50% | — | not on both |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche Game Spread +/-3.5 | 50% | 50% | — | not on both |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche Game Spread +/-3.5 | 50% | 50% | — | not on both |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche Game Spread +/-3.5 | 50% | 50% | — | not on both |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche Game Spread +/-3.5 | 48% | 48% | — | not on both |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche Game Spread +/-3.5 | 48% | 48% | — | not on both |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche Game Spread +/-3.5 | 47.5% | 47.5% | — | not on both |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche Game Spread +/-3.5 | 42% | 42% | — | not on both |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche Game Spread +/-3.5 | 38% | 38% | — | not on both |
| Luca Van Assche | 27% | — | 27% | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [atptour.com](https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current).
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [ATP](https://www.atptour.com/).

## Settlement rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Lorenzo Musetti and Luca Van Assche in the Rolex Paris Masters, originally scheduled for November 5, 2026 at 4:00AM ET.

This market will resolve to 'Lorenzo Musetti' if Lorenzo Musetti advances against Luca Van Assche.

This market will resolve to 'Luca Van Assche' if Luca Van Assche advances against Lorenzo Musetti.

If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50.

If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.

If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/rolex-paris-masters-lorenzo-musetti-vs-luca-van-assche
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/atp-musetti-assche-2026-11-05?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxatpmatch?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/rolex-paris-masters-lorenzo-musetti-vs-luca-van-assche

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.