# Russia x Ukraine prisoner exchange by...?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Russia x Ukraine prisoner exchange by...?". December 31 leads at 88%. Next is November 30 at 61.5%. $1K has traded across 2 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-12T21:48:25Z (15 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Dec 1, 2026
- Volume traded: $1K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| December 31 | 88% | 88% |
| November 30 | 61.5% | 61.5% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.

## Settlement rules

On November 11, 2026, following US-mediated talks in Abu Dhabi, Russia and Ukraine agreed in principle to a large-scale exchange of prisoners of war, with the number of prisoners involved still being finalized.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any confirmed prisoner exchange between Russia and Ukraine takes place between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A prisoner exchange refers to a reciprocal transfer in which each country releases to the other at least one living individual held in its custody. Exchanges conducted with the assistance of third parties (e.g., mediation by the United Arab Emirates or the United States, or a handover in Belarus) will qualify. If an exchange is conducted in multiple stages, the first completed stage will qualify.

The number of prisoners involved does not matter, and the numbers released by each side need not be equal. Any swap involving military or civilian detainees held by either government will qualify.

The following will not qualify on their own: the repatriation of bodies or remains; unilateral releases; and transfers of individuals not held in detention, such as family reunifications, humanitarian evacuations, or the return of children. An agreement or announcement of a future exchange will not qualify unless the exchange actually takes place.

The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/russia-x-ukraine-prisoner-exchange-by
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/russia-x-ukraine-prisoner-exchange-byptptpt?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/russia-x-ukraine-prisoner-exchange-by

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.