# Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton By-Election Winner: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton By-Election Winner". Caroline Émond leads at 65.3%. Next is Chantal Soucy at 26.2%. $1K has traded across 4 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 7, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-06T00:38:03Z (54 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Dec 7, 2026
- Volume traded: $1K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Caroline Émond | 65.3% | 68.5% |
| Chantal Soucy | 26.2% | 27.5% |
| Luc Brodeur-Jourdain | 4.3% | 4.5% |
| Mathieu Boisvert | 4.2% | 4.5% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume, with each venue's margin removed so outcomes add to 100%. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.

## Settlement rules

A by-election for the Canadian federal electoral district of Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton is currently scheduled to be held on December 7, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton by-election.

If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/saint-hyacinthebagotacton-by-election-winner
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/saint-hyacinthebagotacton-by-election-winner-1793634152133?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/saint-hyacinthebagotacton-by-election-winner

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.