# Shopify gross merchandise volume in Q1 2027: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Shopify gross merchandise volume in Q1 2027". Above $120 billion leads at 88%. Next is Above $126 billion at 71%. $3K has traded across 13 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Sep 1, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-06T03:24:03Z (just now)
- Expected to resolve by: Sep 1, 2027
- Volume traded: $3K
- Venues: Kalshi
- Category: economics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Kalshi |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Above $120 billion | 88% | 88% |
| Above $126 billion | 71% | 71% |
| Above $128 billion | 57.5% | 57.5% |
| Above $130 billion | 52.5% | 52.5% |
| Above $114 billion | 49.5% | 49.5% |
| Above $116 billion | 49.5% | 49.5% |
| Above $118 billion | 49.5% | 49.5% |
| Above $132 billion | 49.5% | 49.5% |
| Above $142 billion | 49.5% | 49.5% |
| Above $144 billion | 49.5% | 49.5% |
| Above $146 billion | 49.5% | 49.5% |
| Above $134 billion | 22% | 22% |
| Above $140 billion | 19.5% | 19.5% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Fiscal.ai](https://fiscal.ai).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/shopify-gross-merchandise-volume-in-q1-2027
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxshop?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/shopify-gross-merchandise-volume-in-q1-2027

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.