# South Africa unemployment rate in Q4: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "South Africa unemployment rate in Q4". Above 32.0% leads at 95%. Next is Above 32.5% at 87%. $10K has traded across 18 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 16, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-15T05:22:31Z (14 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Feb 16, 2027
- Volume traded: $10K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: economics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Above 32.0% | 95% | — | 95% | not on both |
| Above 32.5% | 87% | — | 87% | not on both |
| Above 33.0% | 69% | — | 69% | not on both |
| Above 33.5% | 49% | — | 49% | not on both |
| 4.1% | 32.5% | 32.5% | — | not on both |
| 4.2% | 30% | 30% | — | not on both |
| Above 34.0% | 24% | — | 24% | not on both |
| 4.0% | 17.5% | 17.5% | — | not on both |
| Above 34.5% | 8% | — | 8% | not on both |
| 4.3% | 7.5% | 7.5% | — | not on both |
| Above 35.0% | 4% | — | 4% | not on both |
| 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | — | not on both |
| Above 35.5% | 3% | — | 3% | not on both |
| Above 36.0% | 3% | — | 3% | not on both |
| 4.4% | 1.1% | 1.1% | — | not on both |
| 3.8% | 1% | 1% | — | not on both |
| 4.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | — | not on both |
| 4.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [bls.gov](https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm).
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/south-africa/unemployment-rate).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/south-africa-unemployment-rate-in-q4
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/november-unemployment-rate-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxue?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/south-africa-unemployment-rate-in-q4

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.