# South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary Winner 2028: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary Winner 2028". Yes leads at 94%. Next is Ron DeSantis at 44%. $4K has traded across 21 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 8, 2028.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-06T01:28:03Z (7 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 8, 2028
- Volume traded: $4K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Yes | 94% | — | 94% | not on both |
| Ron DeSantis | 44% | 44% | — | not on both |
| Marco Rubio | 42% | 42% | — | not on both |
| Tucker Carlson | 41.5% | 41.5% | — | not on both |
| Glenn Youngkin | 39.5% | 39.5% | — | not on both |
| Ivanka Trump | 39% | 39% | — | not on both |
| Brian Kemp | 38.5% | 38.5% | — | not on both |
| Thomas Massie | 38.5% | 38.5% | — | not on both |
| Pete Hegseth | 38% | 38% | — | not on both |
| J.D. Vance | 37.5% | 37.5% | — | not on both |
| Ted Cruz | 37% | 37% | — | not on both |
| Tom Cotton | 37% | 37% | — | not on both |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 36.5% | 36.5% | — | not on both |
| Josh Hawley | 35% | 35% | — | not on both |
| Rand Paul | 33.5% | 33.5% | — | not on both |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | 33.5% | 33.5% | — | not on both |
| Donald Trump | 33% | 33% | — | not on both |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 32.5% | 32.5% | — | not on both |
| Greg Abbott | 31.5% | 31.5% | — | not on both |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | 28.5% | 28.5% | — | not on both |
| Elon Musk | 6% | 6% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [New Hampshire Secretary of State](https://www.sos.nh.gov/).

## Settlement rules

South Carolina is expected to hold a Republican presidential primary or caucus in 2028.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most votes in the South Carolina Republican primary, caucus, or other official voting process by which the South Carolina public directs the voting of delegates for the selection of the 2028 Republican presidential nominee.

If the relevant delegate selection process is a caucus or other multi-round process, the relevant vote count will be the final round vote count that determines the apportionment of statewide delegates.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If no 2028 South Carolina primary, caucus, or comparable process takes place, or if the results are not definitively known by the earliest of November 7, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, or the first day of the 2028 Republican convention, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the complete results from the South Carolina Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/south-carolina-republican-presidential-primary-winner-2028
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/south-carolina-presidential-republican-primary-winner-202610284?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnhprimary28?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/south-carolina-republican-presidential-primary-winner-2028

---
Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.