# South Carolina's 4th District margin of victory: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "South Carolina's 4th District margin of victory". Timmons, 6+ pts leads at 50%. Next is Timmons, 15+ pts at 48%. $23K has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T21:20:00Z (2 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 3, 2027
- Volume traded: $23K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: other

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Timmons, 6+ pts | 50% | — | 50% | not on both |
| Timmons, 15+ pts | 48% | — | 48% | not on both |
| Republican 0-5% | 45.6% | 45.6% | — | not on both |
| Republican 5-10% | 45.3% | 45.3% | — | not on both |
| Timmons, 18+ pts | 37.4% | — | 37.4% | not on both |
| Timmons, 24+ pts | 37.4% | — | 37.4% | not on both |
| Timmons, 21+ pts | 32% | — | 32% | not on both |
| Timmons, 27+ pts | 14% | — | 14% | not on both |
| Timmons, 12+ pts | 10% | — | 10% | not on both |
| Timmons, 9+ pts | 9% | — | 9% | not on both |
| Democrat Wins | 5.7% | 5.7% | — | not on both |
| Timmons, 30+ pts | 4.1% | — | 4.1% | not on both |
| Republican 25-30% | 1.5% | 1.5% | — | not on both |
| Republican 10-15% | 0.6% | 0.6% | — | not on both |
| Republican 15-20% | 0.6% | 0.6% | — | not on both |
| Republican 20-25% | 0.6% | 0.6% | — | not on both |
| Republican 30%+ | 0.5% | 0.5% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [South Carolina State Election Commission](https://scvotes.gov).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/south-carolinas-4th-district-margin-of-victory
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/sc-04-house-margin-of-victory-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/south-carolinas-4th-district-margin-of-victory

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.