# Spain General Election: SALF wins a seat?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Spain General Election: SALF wins a seat?". Coalición Canaria leads at 87%. Next is Adelante Andalucía at 80%. $14K has traded across 4 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 30, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T22:09:00Z (3 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 30, 2026
- Volume traded: $14K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Coalición Canaria | 87% | — | 87% | not on both |
| Adelante Andalucía | 80% | — | 80% | not on both |
| Podemos | 53% | — | 53% | not on both |
| Yes | 15% | 14% | 18% | 4.0 pts |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Spanish Ministry of the Interior](https://infoelectoral.interior.gob.es/), [Junta Electoral Central](https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/).

## Settlement rules

Legislative elections to elect the 350 members of the Congress of Deputies of Spain are scheduled to take place on November 29, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Se Acabó La Fiesta (SALF) wins at least one seat in the Congress of Deputies of Spain as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Seats and votes will be attributed according to the electoral list on which they were obtained, as reported in the official results, regardless of the party membership of individual candidates. Lists will be attributed as follows:

PSOE: lists of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party, including the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC) lists in Catalonia.

PP: lists of the People's Party, including the joint UPN–PP list in Navarre.

Broad Front (FA): all Broad Front lists, including Catalunya en Comú in Catalonia, Compromís–Valencian Front in the Valencian Community, and Canarian People’s Unity (UPC) in the Canary Islands.

ERC: Republican Left of Catalonia lists, including the joint ERC–Podem lists in Catalonia.

Podemos: only lists presented by Podemos on its own.

CCa: Canarian Coalition lists, including the joint CCa–1º CAN lists in the Canary Islands.

Any other list will be attributed to the party or coalition that presents it, as named in the official proclamation of candidacies.

Electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent changes in party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership will not be considered.

This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Spanish Ministry of the Interior (https://infoelectoral.interior.gob.es/).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/spain-general-election-salf-wins-a-seat
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/spain-general-election-salf-wins-a-seat?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxspainanyseat?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/spain-general-election-salf-wins-a-seat

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.