# Stephen Thompson vs Charles Radtke: Method of Victory: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Stephen Thompson vs Charles Radtke: Method of Victory". O/U 0.5 Rounds leads at 74%. Next is O/U 1.5 Rounds at 66.5%. $29K has traded across 26 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 29, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-12T23:21:25Z (6 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 29, 2026
- Volume traded: $29K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: sports

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| O/U 0.5 Rounds | 74% | 74% | — | not on both |
| O/U 1.5 Rounds | 66.5% | 66.5% | — | not on both |
| O/U 2.5 Rounds | 63.5% | 63.5% | — | not on both |
| Fight to Go the Distance? | 57.5% | 57.5% | — | not on both |
| Stephen Thompson vs. Charles Radtke | 56.5% | 56.5% | — | not on both |
| Decision or Draw | 56% | 56% | — | not on both |
| Fight won by decision? | 56% | 56% | — | not on both |
| Stephen Thompson by Decision | 40% | — | 40% | not on both |
| Fight won by KO/TKO? | 38% | 38% | — | not on both |
| Ends before Round 3? | 33% | 33% | — | not on both |
| Radtke to win by KO/TKO? | 30.5% | 30.5% | — | not on both |
| Thompson to win by KO/TKO? | 30.5% | 30.5% | — | not on both |
| Radtke in Round 1 | 27.5% | 27.5% | — | not on both |
| Fight won by submission? | 27% | 27% | — | not on both |
| Radtke in Round 2 | 27% | 27% | — | not on both |
| Radtke in Round 3 | 26.5% | 26.5% | — | not on both |
| Thompson in Round 1 | 26.5% | 26.5% | — | not on both |
| Thompson in Round 2 | 26.5% | 26.5% | — | not on both |
| Thompson in Round 3 | 26.5% | 26.5% | — | not on both |
| Stephen Thompson by KO/TKO/DQ | 18% | — | 18% | not on both |
| Ends before Round 2? | 17% | 17% | — | not on both |
| Charles Radtke by KO/TKO/DQ | 16% | — | 16% | not on both |
| Charles Radtke by Decision | 15% | — | 15% | not on both |
| Charles Radtke by Submission | 8% | — | 8% | not on both |
| Stephen Thompson by Submission | 4% | — | 4% | not on both |
| Draw/No Contest | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [ufc.com](https://www.ufc.com/events).
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [ESPN](https://www.espn.com), [Fox Sports](https://www.foxsports.com), [Paramount+](https://www.paramountplus.com/home/).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/stephen-thompson-vs-charles-radtke-method-of-victory
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/ufc-ste2-cha29-2026-11-14?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxufcmov?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/stephen-thompson-vs-charles-radtke-method-of-victory

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.