# Strait of Hormuz: highest single-day traffic (November 2026): prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Strait of Hormuz: highest single-day traffic (November 2026)". At least 5 leads at 91%. Next is At least 8 at 61%. $1.5M has traded across 10 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 8, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T22:27:00Z (just now)
- Expected to resolve by: Dec 8, 2026
- Volume traded: $1.5M
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| At least 5 | 91% | — | 91% | not on both |
| At least 8 | 61% | — | 61% | not on both |
| At least 9 | 54% | — | 54% | not on both |
| At least 10 | 45% | — | 45% | not on both |
| At least 12 | 24.5% | — | 24.5% | not on both |
| At least 14 | 24.5% | — | 24.5% | not on both |
| At least 16 | 24% | — | 24% | not on both |
| At least 20 | 11% | — | 11% | not on both |
| At least 25 | 9% | — | 9% | not on both |
| Yes | 3.9% | 3.9% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [portwatch.imf.org](https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730).
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [IMF PortWatch](https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/chokepoint6).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/strait-of-hormuz-highest-single-day-traffic-november-2026
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-november-30-20260810151158765?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmaxshipshormuz?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/strait-of-hormuz-highest-single-day-traffic-november-2026

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.