# Sweden rate decision in December: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Sweden rate decision in December". Maintain current rate leads at 65%. Next is 25 bps increase at 63.5%. $14.6M has traded across 10 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 16, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-05T18:43:51Z (1 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Dec 16, 2026
- Volume traded: $14.6M
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: economics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Maintain current rate | 65% | — | 65% | not on both |
| 25 bps increase | 63.5% | 63.5% | — | not on both |
| No change | 32.5% | 32.5% | — | not on both |
| Hike 1-25bps | 30% | — | 30% | not on both |
| Cut 1-25bps | 3.5% | — | 3.5% | not on both |
| Hike more than 25bps | 3.5% | — | 3.5% | not on both |
| Cut more than 25bps | 3% | — | 3% | not on both |
| 25 bps decrease | 1.4% | 1.4% | — | not on both |
| 50+ bps increase | 0.7% | 0.7% | — | not on both |
| 50+ bps decrease | 0.6% | 0.6% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [federalreserve.gov](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm).
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Sveriges Riksbank](https://www.riksbank.se/en-gb/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-report/monetary-policy-decision-documents/), [Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/sweden/interest-rate).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/sweden-rate-decision-in-december
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-december-20260729232808632?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcbdsweden?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/sweden-rate-decision-in-december

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.