# Texas presidential election winner?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Texas presidential election winner?". Republican party leads at 59.4%. Next is Democratic party at 40.6%. $19K has traded across 2 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 7, 2029.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-09T15:03:20Z (11 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 7, 2029
- Volume traded: $19K
- Venues: Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Kalshi |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Republican party | 59.4% | 60% |
| Democratic party | 40.6% | 41% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume, with each venue's margin removed so outcomes add to 100%. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Texas Secretary of State](https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/index.shtml), [United States Congress](https://www.congress.gov/), [Associated Press](https://apnews.com).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/texas-presidential-election-winner
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxpresstate?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/texas-presidential-election-winner

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.