# Texas's 10th District margin of victory: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Texas's 10th District margin of victory". Gober, 3+ pts leads at 97.8%. Next is Republican 5-10% at 97.4%. $29K has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T21:13:00Z (58 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 3, 2027
- Volume traded: $29K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: other

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Gober, 3+ pts | 97.8% | — | 97.8% | not on both |
| Republican 5-10% | 97.4% | 97.4% | — | not on both |
| Gober, 6+ pts | 96.9% | — | 96.9% | not on both |
| Gober, 9+ pts | 4.1% | — | 4.1% | not on both |
| Gober, 12+ pts | 3.1% | — | 3.1% | not on both |
| Republican 10-15% | 2.3% | 2.3% | — | not on both |
| Republican 0-5% | 2% | 2% | — | not on both |
| Democrat Wins | 1.9% | 1.9% | — | not on both |
| Republican 25-30% | 1.6% | 1.6% | — | not on both |
| Gober, 21+ pts | 1.5% | — | 1.5% | not on both |
| Gober, 18+ pts | 1.4% | — | 1.4% | not on both |
| Republican 30%+ | 1.4% | 1.4% | — | not on both |
| Gober, 15+ pts | 1.3% | — | 1.3% | not on both |
| Gober, 27+ pts | 1.2% | — | 1.2% | not on both |
| Gober, 24+ pts | 1.1% | — | 1.1% | not on both |
| Republican 15-20% | 0.4% | 0.4% | — | not on both |
| Republican 20-25% | 0.2% | 0.2% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Texas Secretary of State](https://www.sos.texas.gov).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/texass-10th-district-margin-of-victory
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/tx-10-house-margin-of-victory-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/texass-10th-district-margin-of-victory

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.