# Texas's 14th District margin of victory: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Texas's 14th District margin of victory". Weber, 2+ pts leads at 99%. Next is Weber, 5+ pts at 97.6%. $24K has traded across 20 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T21:13:00Z (58 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 3, 2027
- Volume traded: $24K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: other

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Weber, 2+ pts | 99% | — | 99% | not on both |
| Weber, 5+ pts | 97.6% | — | 97.6% | not on both |
| Republican 5-10% | 57.5% | 57.5% | — | not on both |
| Weber, 8+ pts | 56.5% | — | 56.5% | not on both |
| Republican 0-5% | 40.1% | 40.1% | — | not on both |
| Republican 20-25% | 39.3% | 39.3% | — | not on both |
| Republican 30-35% | 29.8% | 29.8% | — | not on both |
| Republican 15-20% | 17.7% | 17.7% | — | not on both |
| Republican 10-15% | 2.6% | 2.6% | — | not on both |
| Republican 35%+ | 2.2% | 2.2% | — | not on both |
| Weber, 11+ pts | 2.1% | — | 2.1% | not on both |
| Weber, 17+ pts | 1.7% | — | 1.7% | not on both |
| Weber, 20+ pts | 1.7% | — | 1.7% | not on both |
| Weber, 14+ pts | 1.7% | — | 1.7% | not on both |
| Weber, 23+ pts | 1.1% | — | 1.1% | not on both |
| Weber, 26+ pts | 1.1% | — | 1.1% | not on both |
| Weber, 32+ pts | 1.1% | — | 1.1% | not on both |
| Weber, 29+ pts | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Democrat Wins | 0.3% | 0.3% | — | not on both |
| Republican 25-30% | 0.2% | 0.2% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Texas Secretary of State](https://www.sos.texas.gov).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/texass-14th-district-margin-of-victory
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/tx-14-house-margin-of-victory-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/texass-14th-district-margin-of-victory

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.