# Texas's 18th District margin of victory: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Texas's 18th District margin of victory". Menefee, 55+ pts leads at 91.5%. Next is Menefee, 49+ pts at 90.1%. $27K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T22:07:00Z (just now)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 3, 2027
- Volume traded: $27K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: other

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Menefee, 55+ pts | 91.5% | — | 91.5% | not on both |
| Menefee, 49+ pts | 90.1% | — | 90.1% | not on both |
| Menefee, 52+ pts | 81% | — | 81% | not on both |
| Menefee, 64+ pts | 67% | — | 67% | not on both |
| Menefee, 61+ pts | 66% | — | 66% | not on both |
| Menefee, 58+ pts | 50% | — | 50% | not on both |
| Democrat 45-50% | 46.5% | 46.5% | — | not on both |
| Democrat 65-70% | 46% | 46% | — | not on both |
| Democrat 70-75% | 44.5% | 44.5% | — | not on both |
| Menefee, 67+ pts | 35% | — | 35% | not on both |
| Menefee, 70+ pts | 22% | — | 22% | not on both |
| Democrat 75%+ | 18.4% | 18.4% | — | not on both |
| Menefee, 73+ pts | 15% | — | 15% | not on both |
| Democrat 50-55% | 5% | 5% | — | not on both |
| Democrat 35-45% | 1.6% | 1.6% | — | not on both |
| Democrat 0-35% | 1.4% | 1.4% | — | not on both |
| Democrat 55-60% | 0.6% | 0.6% | — | not on both |
| Democrat 60-65% | 0.6% | 0.6% | — | not on both |
| Republican Wins | 0.4% | 0.4% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Texas Secretary of State](https://www.sos.texas.gov).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/texass-18th-district-margin-of-victory
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/tx-18-house-margin-of-victory-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/texass-18th-district-margin-of-victory

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.