# Texas's 19th District margin of victory: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Texas's 19th District margin of victory". Sell, 29+ pts leads at 87%. Next is Sell, 38+ pts at 56%. $25K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T21:12:00Z (59 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 3, 2027
- Volume traded: $25K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: other

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Sell, 29+ pts | 87% | — | 87% | not on both |
| Sell, 38+ pts | 56% | — | 56% | not on both |
| Sell, 32+ pts | 49.5% | — | 49.5% | not on both |
| Sell, 35+ pts | 49.5% | — | 49.5% | not on both |
| Sell, 53+ pts | 46.1% | — | 46.1% | not on both |
| Sell, 41+ pts | 42% | — | 42% | not on both |
| Sell, 47+ pts | 42% | — | 42% | not on both |
| Republican 35-40% | 41% | 41% | — | not on both |
| Sell, 44+ pts | 26% | — | 26% | not on both |
| Republican 30-35% | 22.5% | 22.5% | — | not on both |
| Republican 40-45% | 22.5% | 22.5% | — | not on both |
| Republican 55%+ | 9.7% | 9.7% | — | not on both |
| Sell, 50+ pts | 8.9% | — | 8.9% | not on both |
| Republican 25-30% | 2.4% | 2.4% | — | not on both |
| Republican 0-15% | 1.5% | 1.5% | — | not on both |
| Republican 50-55% | 1.4% | 1.4% | — | not on both |
| Republican 15-25% | 0.7% | 0.7% | — | not on both |
| Republican 45-50% | 0.6% | 0.6% | — | not on both |
| Democrat Wins | 0.5% | 0.5% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Texas Secretary of State](https://www.sos.texas.gov).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/texass-19th-district-margin-of-victory
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/tx-19-house-margin-of-victory-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/texass-19th-district-margin-of-victory

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.