# Texas's 1st District margin of victory: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Texas's 1st District margin of victory". Moran, 29+ pts leads at 96.4%. Next is Moran, 32+ pts at 88%. $29K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T20:07:00Z (1 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 3, 2027
- Volume traded: $29K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: other

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Moran, 29+ pts | 96.4% | — | 96.4% | not on both |
| Moran, 32+ pts | 88% | — | 88% | not on both |
| Republican 35-40% | 66.5% | 66.5% | — | not on both |
| Moran, 47+ pts | 54% | — | 54% | not on both |
| Moran, 41+ pts | 50% | — | 50% | not on both |
| Moran, 35+ pts | 49.5% | — | 49.5% | not on both |
| Moran, 38+ pts | 49.5% | — | 49.5% | not on both |
| Moran, 53+ pts | 49.5% | — | 49.5% | not on both |
| Moran, 44+ pts | 40% | — | 40% | not on both |
| Moran, 50+ pts | 18% | — | 18% | not on both |
| Republican 40-45% | 10% | 10% | — | not on both |
| Republican 45-50% | 4.3% | 4.3% | — | not on both |
| Republican 20-30% | 2.6% | 2.6% | — | not on both |
| Republican 55-60% | 2.5% | 2.5% | — | not on both |
| Democrat Wins | 2.3% | 2.3% | — | not on both |
| Republican 30-35% | 2.3% | 2.3% | — | not on both |
| Republican 50-55% | 2.2% | 2.2% | — | not on both |
| Republican 0-20% | 0.6% | 0.6% | — | not on both |
| Republican 60%+ | 0.5% | 0.5% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Texas Secretary of State](https://www.sos.texas.gov).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/texass-1st-district-margin-of-victory
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/tx-01-house-margin-of-victory-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/texass-1st-district-margin-of-victory

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.