# Texas's 20th District margin of victory: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Texas's 20th District margin of victory". Castro, 27+ pts leads at 99%. Next is Castro, 30+ pts at 98.9%. $29K has traded across 20 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T21:13:00Z (58 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 3, 2027
- Volume traded: $29K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: other

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Castro, 27+ pts | 99% | — | 99% | not on both |
| Castro, 30+ pts | 98.9% | — | 98.9% | not on both |
| Castro, 33+ pts | 98.9% | — | 98.9% | not on both |
| Castro, 36+ pts | 98.9% | — | 98.9% | not on both |
| Castro, 39+ pts | 98.9% | — | 98.9% | not on both |
| Castro, 42+ pts | 98.9% | — | 98.9% | not on both |
| Castro, 45+ pts | 98.6% | — | 98.6% | not on both |
| Castro, 48+ pts | 98.6% | — | 98.6% | not on both |
| Castro, 51+ pts | 98.2% | — | 98.2% | not on both |
| Castro, 54+ pts | 96% | — | 96% | not on both |
| Democrat 55%+ | 50.3% | 50.3% | — | not on both |
| Democrat 35-40% | 33.8% | 33.8% | — | not on both |
| Democrat 50-55% | 22.9% | 22.9% | — | not on both |
| Democrat 45-50% | 14.6% | 14.6% | — | not on both |
| Democrat 40-45% | 2.7% | 2.7% | — | not on both |
| Democrat 15-25% | 2.5% | 2.5% | — | not on both |
| Democrat 30-35% | 1.7% | 1.7% | — | not on both |
| Democrat 0-15% | 1.2% | 1.2% | — | not on both |
| Democrat 25-30% | 0.7% | 0.7% | — | not on both |
| Republican Wins | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Texas Secretary of State](https://www.sos.texas.gov).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/texass-20th-district-margin-of-victory
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/tx-20-house-margin-of-victory-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/texass-20th-district-margin-of-victory

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.