# Texas's 31st District margin of victory: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Texas's 31st District margin of victory". Carter, 5+ pts leads at 93.3%. Next is Carter, 2+ pts at 90.8%. $24K has traded across 18 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T22:11:00Z (1 d ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 3, 2027
- Volume traded: $24K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: other

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Carter, 5+ pts | 93.3% | — | 93.3% | not on both |
| Carter, 2+ pts | 90.8% | — | 90.8% | not on both |
| Republican 5-10% | 84.5% | 84.5% | — | not on both |
| Carter, 8+ pts | 76% | — | 76% | not on both |
| Carter, 11+ pts | 54% | — | 54% | not on both |
| Carter, 14+ pts | 50% | — | 50% | not on both |
| Carter, 17+ pts | 50% | — | 50% | not on both |
| Carter, 29+ pts | 50% | — | 50% | not on both |
| Carter, 20+ pts | 24% | — | 24% | not on both |
| Carter, 23+ pts | 22% | — | 22% | not on both |
| Carter, 26+ pts | 8.9% | — | 8.9% | not on both |
| Republican 10-15% | 6% | 6% | — | not on both |
| Republican 0-5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | — | not on both |
| Republican 25-30% | 1.2% | 1.2% | — | not on both |
| Democrat Wins | 0.6% | 0.6% | — | not on both |
| Republican 15-20% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | not on both |
| Republican 20-25% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | not on both |
| Republican 30%+ | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Texas Secretary of State](https://www.sos.texas.gov).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/texass-31st-district-margin-of-victory
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/tx-31-house-margin-of-victory-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/texass-31st-district-margin-of-victory

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.