# Texas's 32nd District margin of victory: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Texas's 32nd District margin of victory". Republican 3-6% leads at 57.1%. Next is Democrat 0-3% at 37%. $43K has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T20:08:00Z (1 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 3, 2027
- Volume traded: $43K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: other

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Republican 3-6% | 57.1% | 57.1% | — | not on both |
| Democrat 0-3% | 37% | 37% | — | not on both |
| Yarbrough, 3+ pts | 36% | — | 36% | not on both |
| Republican 18-21% | 16.8% | 16.8% | — | not on both |
| Democrat 3%+ | 5% | 5% | — | not on both |
| Republican 6-9% | 4.2% | 4.2% | — | not on both |
| Republican 15-18% | 3.9% | 3.9% | — | not on both |
| Democrat 0-3% | 2.9% | 2.9% | — | not on both |
| Yarbrough, 6+ pts | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |
| Yarbrough, 9+ pts | 1.6% | — | 1.6% | not on both |
| Republican 9-12% | 1.2% | 1.2% | — | not on both |
| Yarbrough, 12+ pts | 1.1% | — | 1.1% | not on both |
| Yarbrough, 15+ pts | 1.1% | — | 1.1% | not on both |
| Yarbrough, 18+ pts | 1.1% | — | 1.1% | not on both |
| Republican 12-15% | 0.7% | 0.7% | — | not on both |
| Republican 21%+ | 0.7% | 0.7% | — | not on both |
| Yarbrough, 21+ pts | 0.3% | — | 0.3% | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Texas Secretary of State](https://www.sos.texas.gov).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/texass-32nd-district-margin-of-victory
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/tx-32-house-margin-of-victory-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/texass-32nd-district-margin-of-victory

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.