# Texas's 38th District margin of victory: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Texas's 38th District margin of victory". Bonck, 2+ pts leads at 97%. Next is Bonck, 5+ pts at 6.1%. $3K has traded across 9 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T21:12:00Z (59 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 3, 2027
- Volume traded: $3K
- Venues: Kalshi
- Category: other

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Kalshi |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Bonck, 2+ pts | 97% | 97% |
| Bonck, 5+ pts | 6.1% | 6.1% |
| Bonck, 8+ pts | 2.8% | 2.8% |
| Bonck, 11+ pts | 2.7% | 2.7% |
| Bonck, 17+ pts | 2.3% | 2.3% |
| Bonck, 14+ pts | 2% | 2% |
| Bonck, 20+ pts | 1.9% | 1.9% |
| Bonck, 23+ pts | 1.8% | 1.8% |
| Bonck, 26+ pts | 1.4% | 1.4% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Texas Secretary of State](https://www.sos.texas.gov).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/texass-38th-district-margin-of-victory
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/texass-38th-district-margin-of-victory

---
Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.