# Texas's 9th District margin of victory: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Texas's 9th District margin of victory". Gutierrez, 2+ pts leads at 99%. Next is Gutierrez, 5+ pts at 98%. $71K has traded across 19 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T22:12:00Z (1 d ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 3, 2027
- Volume traded: $71K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: other

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Gutierrez, 2+ pts | 99% | — | 99% | not on both |
| Gutierrez, 5+ pts | 98% | — | 98% | not on both |
| Democrat 6%+ | 88.5% | 88.5% | — | not on both |
| Democrat 0-3% | 10.5% | 10.5% | — | not on both |
| Republican 12-15% | 9.1% | 9.1% | — | not on both |
| Republican 9-12% | 8.8% | 8.8% | — | not on both |
| Republican 3-6% | 7.1% | 7.1% | — | not on both |
| Democrat 0-3% | 4.5% | 4.5% | — | not on both |
| Republican 6-9% | 1.5% | 1.5% | — | not on both |
| Republican 3-6% | 0.8% | 0.8% | — | not on both |
| Mealer, 1+ pts | 0.4% | — | 0.4% | not on both |
| Republican 15-18% | 0.4% | 0.4% | — | not on both |
| Mealer, 4+ pts | 0.3% | — | 0.3% | not on both |
| Mealer, 7+ pts | 0.3% | — | 0.3% | not on both |
| Mealer, 10+ pts | 0.3% | — | 0.3% | not on both |
| Mealer, 13+ pts | 0.3% | — | 0.3% | not on both |
| Mealer, 16+ pts | 0.3% | — | 0.3% | not on both |
| Mealer, 19+ pts | 0.3% | — | 0.3% | not on both |
| Republican 18%+ | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Texas Secretary of State](https://www.sos.texas.gov).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/texass-9th-district-margin-of-victory-1
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/tx-09-house-margin-of-victory-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/texass-9th-district-margin-of-victory-1

---
Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.