# Third-party share of the 2028 presidential popular vote?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Third-party share of the 2028 presidential popular vote?". At least 1% leads at 96%. Next is At least 1.5% at 88%. $4K has traded across 8 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 8, 2029.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-07T13:39:03Z (14 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Jan 8, 2029
- Volume traded: $4K
- Venues: Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Kalshi |
| --- | --- | --- |
| At least 1% | 96% | 96% |
| At least 1.5% | 88% | 88% |
| At least 2% | 65% | 65% |
| At least 2.5% | 44% | 44% |
| At least 3% | 35% | 35% |
| At least 4% | 18% | 18% |
| At least 5% | 7.5% | 7.5% |
| At least 7% | 5% | 5% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Federal Election Commission](https://www.fec.gov).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/third-party-share-of-the-2028-presidential-popular-vote
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtpprespct?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/third-party-share-of-the-2028-presidential-popular-vote

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.