# This Nov 2026 is the hottest November ever?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "This Nov 2026 is the hottest November ever?". Hottest on record leads at 94.5%. Next is 2nd hottest at 5.4%. $12K has traded across 4 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 16, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-05T11:53:00Z (1 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Dec 16, 2026
- Volume traded: $12K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: climate

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Hottest on record | 94.5% | 93.5% | 88% | 5.5 pts |
| 2nd hottest | 5.4% | 5.4% | — | not on both |
| 3rd hottest | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | not on both |
| 4th or lower | 0% | 0.1% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume, with each venue's margin removed so outcomes add to 100%. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [NCEI](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/global/time-series).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/this-nov-2026-is-the-hottest-november-ever
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/november-2026-1st-2nd-or-3rd-hottest-on-record?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxhmonth?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/this-nov-2026-is-the-hottest-november-ever

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.