# TIME's Athlete of the Year: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "TIME's Athlete of the Year". Jalen Brunson leads at 51%. Next is Lamine Yamal at 30%. $433K has traded across 84 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 31, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-13T07:47:45Z (10 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Mar 31, 2027
- Volume traded: $433K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: culture

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Jalen Brunson | 51% | — | 51% | not on both |
| Lamine Yamal | 30% | — | 30% | not on both |
| Zohran Mamdani | 22.5% | 22.5% | — | not on both |
| Victor Wembanyama | 20% | — | 20% | not on both |
| James Talarico | 19.2% | 19.2% | — | not on both |
| Abdul El-Sayed | 16% | 16% | — | not on both |
| Mark Carney | 12% | 12% | — | not on both |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 7.1% | 7.1% | — | not on both |
| Angel Reese | 7% | — | 7% | not on both |
| Lionel Messi | 7% | — | 7% | not on both |
| Pope Leo XIV | 7% | 7% | — | not on both |
| Donald Trump | 6.1% | 6.1% | — | not on both |
| Lula da Silva | 5.5% | 5.5% | — | not on both |
| Shohei Ohtani | 5.5% | — | 5.5% | not on both |
| Dario Amodei | 5.3% | 5.3% | — | not on both |
| Bad Bunny | 4% | 4% | — | not on both |
| Marco Rubio | 3.9% | 3.9% | — | not on both |
| Reid Wiseman | 3.9% | 3.9% | — | not on both |
| Victor Glover | 3.8% | 3.8% | — | not on both |
| Artificial Intelligence | 3.7% | 3.7% | — | not on both |
| A'ja Wilson | 3.5% | — | 3.5% | not on both |
| Aaron Judge | 3.5% | — | 3.5% | not on both |
| Agnes Ngetich | 3.5% | — | 3.5% | not on both |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 3.5% | 3.5% | — | not on both |
| Alison dos Santos | 3.5% | — | 3.5% | not on both |
| Aliyah Boston | 3.5% | — | 3.5% | not on both |
| Andy Díaz Hernández | 3.5% | — | 3.5% | not on both |
| Anthony Edwards | 3.5% | — | 3.5% | not on both |
| Audrey Werro | 3.5% | — | 3.5% | not on both |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 3.5% | — | 3.5% | not on both |
| Caitlin Clark | 3.5% | — | 3.5% | not on both |
| Cal Raleigh | 3.5% | — | 3.5% | not on both |
| Camryn Rogers | 3.5% | — | 3.5% | not on both |
| Carlos Alcaraz | 3.5% | — | 3.5% | not on both |
| Chase Jackson | 3.5% | — | 3.5% | not on both |
| Collen Kebinatshipi | 3.5% | — | 3.5% | not on both |
| Eileen Gu | 3.5% | — | 3.5% | not on both |
| Elena Rybakina | 3.5% | — | 3.5% | not on both |
| Faith Kipyegon | 3.5% | — | 3.5% | not on both |
| Freddie Freeman | 3.5% | — | 3.5% | not on both |

Showing the top 40 of 84 outcomes. 
"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [The Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/), [ESPN](https://www.espn.com), [The Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/times-athlete-of-the-year
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/time-person-of-the-year-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtimesathlete?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/times-athlete-of-the-year

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.