# Top AI model this month: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Top AI model this month". Gemini 4 Carbon (High) leads at 76%. Next is claude-opus-5.5-high at 8%. $6K has traded across 4 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 30, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T21:58:00Z (2 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 30, 2026
- Volume traded: $6K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: ai_tech

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Gemini 4 Carbon (High) | 76% | — | 76% | not on both |
| claude-opus-5.5-high | 8% | — | 8% | not on both |
| gemini-4-argon-high | 5% | — | 5% | not on both |
| Yes | 2% | 2% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [lmarena.ai](https://lmarena.ai/).
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)](https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/top-ai-model-this-month-3
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-a-dllm-be-the-top-ai-model-before-2027?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtopmodel?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/top-ai-model-this-month-3

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.