# Top Chinese AI Company week of November 2nd: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Top Chinese AI Company week of November 2nd". Xiaomi leads at 47.1%. Next is Alibaba at 25.8%. $103K has traded across 11 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 9, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T21:22:00Z (3 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 9, 2026
- Volume traded: $103K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: ai_tech

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Xiaomi | 47.1% | 37.4% | 79% | 41.6 pts |
| Alibaba | 25.8% | 34% | 8% | 26.0 pts |
| Moonshot | 9.2% | 11.5% | 5% | 6.5 pts |
| Z.ai | 7% | 11% | 6% | 5.0 pts |
| DeepSeek | 4.3% | 2.2% | 8% | 5.8 pts |
| Tencent | 2% | 4.5% | 1% | 3.5 pts |
| ByteDance | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1% | 0.5 pts |
| MiniMax | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1% | 0.7 pts |
| Baidu | 1% | 1.1% | 1% | 0.1 pts |
| Meituan | 0.7% | 0.1% | 1% | 0.9 pts |
| StepFun | 0.3% | 0.3% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume, with each venue's margin removed so outcomes add to 100%. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [arena.ai](https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control).
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)](https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/top-chinese-ai-company-week-of-november-2nd
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/best-chinese-ai-company-end-of-november?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxchinaai?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/top-chinese-ai-company-week-of-november-2nd

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.