# Total Chess World Championship Tour Pilot Winner: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Total Chess World Championship Tour Pilot Winner". Magnus Carlsen leads at 39.3%. Next is Fabiano Caruana at 10%. $2K has traded across 24 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 27, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T20:08:00Z (1 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 27, 2026
- Volume traded: $2K
- Venues: Kalshi
- Category: sports

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Kalshi |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Magnus Carlsen | 39.3% | 59% |
| Fabiano Caruana | 10% | 15% |
| Wesley So | 6.6% | 10% |
| Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu | 6% | 9% |
| Alireza Firouzja | 3% | 4.5% |
| Nodirbek Abdusattorov | 2.6% | 4% |
| Arjun Erigaisi | 2.3% | 3.5% |
| Ian Nepomniachtchi | 2% | 3% |
| Jan-Krzysztof Duda | 2% | 3% |
| Levon Aronian | 2% | 3% |
| Maxime Vachier-Lagrave | 2% | 3% |
| Richard Rapport | 2% | 3% |
| Abhimanyu Mishra | 1.7% | 2.5% |
| Andrew Hong | 1.7% | 2.5% |
| Anish Giri | 1.7% | 2.5% |
| Bibisara Assaubayeva | 1.7% | 2.5% |
| Haik M. Martirosyan | 1.7% | 2.5% |
| Hans Moke Niemann | 1.7% | 2.5% |
| Jorden van Foreest | 1.7% | 2.5% |
| Liem Le | 1.7% | 2.5% |
| Shakhriyar Mamedyarov | 1.7% | 2.5% |
| Vaishali Rameshbabu | 1.7% | 2.5% |
| Vincent Keymer | 1.6% | 2.5% |
| Vladislav Artemiev | 1.6% | 2.5% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume, with each venue's margin removed so outcomes add to 100%. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Chess.com](https://www.chess.com/), [FIDE](https://www.fide.com/), [Total Chess](https://www.totalchess.com/pilot-2026).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/total-chess-world-championship-tour-pilot-winner
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxchesstournament?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/total-chess-world-championship-tour-pilot-winner

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.