# Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (11/16 - 11/22): prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (11/16 - 11/22)". 170+ leads at 89.5%. Next is Above 170 at 89%. $11K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 24, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-15T05:20:41Z (14 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 24, 2026
- Volume traded: $11K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 170+ | 89.5% | 89.5% | — | not on both |
| Above 170 | 89% | — | 89% | not on both |
| 175+ | 85.5% | 85.5% | — | not on both |
| Above 175 | 85% | — | 85% | not on both |
| Above 180 | 75% | — | 75% | not on both |
| 180+ | 72% | 72% | — | not on both |
| 185+ | 59.5% | 59.5% | — | not on both |
| Above 185 | 59% | — | 59% | not on both |
| 190+ | 49% | 49% | — | not on both |
| Above 190 | 48% | — | 48% | not on both |
| 195+ | 35% | 35% | — | not on both |
| Above 195 | 33.5% | — | 33.5% | not on both |
| Above 200 | 21% | — | 21% | not on both |
| Above 205 | 12% | — | 12% | not on both |
| Above 210 | 8.5% | — | 8.5% | not on both |
| Above 220 | 5.5% | — | 5.5% | not on both |
| Above 230 | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [portwatch.imf.org](https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c).
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [IMF PortWatch](https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/chokepoint4).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/traffic-through-the-bab-el-mandeb-strait-1116-1122
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/ship-traffic-through-the-bab-el-mandeb-strait-week-of-november-16?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbabelmandebweekly?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/traffic-through-the-bab-el-mandeb-strait-1116-1122

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.