# Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (11/2 - 11/8): prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (11/2 - 11/8)". Above 150 leads at 98%. Next is Above 160 at 96%. $56K has traded across 11 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 10, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T20:04:00Z (1 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 10, 2026
- Volume traded: $56K
- Venues: Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Kalshi |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Above 150 | 98% | 98% |
| Above 160 | 96% | 96% |
| Above 170 | 94% | 94% |
| Above 180 | 90% | 90% |
| Above 185 | 68% | 68% |
| Above 190 | 63% | 63% |
| Above 195 | 53% | 53% |
| Above 200 | 40% | 40% |
| Above 205 | 27% | 27% |
| Above 210 | 12% | 12% |
| Above 220 | 5% | 5% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [IMF PortWatch](https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/chokepoint4).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/traffic-through-the-bab-el-mandeb-strait-112-118
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbabelmandebweekly?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/traffic-through-the-bab-el-mandeb-strait-112-118

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.