# Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (11/9 - 11/15): prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (11/9 - 11/15)". Above 180 leads at 90.5%. Next is Above 185 at 85.5%. $1K has traded across 9 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 17, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-07T22:49:03Z (12 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 17, 2026
- Volume traded: $1K
- Venues: Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Kalshi |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Above 180 | 90.5% | 90.5% |
| Above 185 | 85.5% | 85.5% |
| Above 190 | 79% | 79% |
| Above 195 | 78% | 78% |
| Above 205 | 38% | 38% |
| Above 200 | 37% | 37% |
| Above 210 | 11.5% | 11.5% |
| Above 220 | 7.5% | 7.5% |
| Above 230 | 4% | 4% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [IMF PortWatch](https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/chokepoint4).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/traffic-through-the-bab-el-mandeb-strait-119-1115
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbabelmandebweekly?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/traffic-through-the-bab-el-mandeb-strait-119-1115

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.