# Trump approval rating at least ___ on November 6?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Trump approval rating at least ___ on November 6?". 37.0+ leads at 96.2%. Next is 38.0+ at 95.5%. $589K has traded across 19 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 7, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T21:22:00Z (3 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 7, 2026
- Volume traded: $589K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 37.0+ | 96.2% | 96.2% | — | not on both |
| 38.0+ | 95.5% | 95.5% | — | not on both |
| 36.0+ | 86% | 86% | — | not on both |
| Below 36% | 76% | — | 76% | not on both |
| Above 37.6% | 65% | — | 65% | not on both |
| 39.0+ | 45% | 45% | — | not on both |
| Below 35% | 36% | — | 36% | not on both |
| Below 34% | 22% | — | 22% | not on both |
| Below 33% | 14% | — | 14% | not on both |
| Above 43% | 5% | — | 5% | not on both |
| Above 47% | 3.9% | — | 3.9% | not on both |
| Above 44% | 3.4% | — | 3.4% | not on both |
| 40.0+ | 3.2% | 3.2% | — | not on both |
| Above 49% | 3% | — | 3% | not on both |
| Above 45% | 2.6% | — | 2.6% | not on both |
| Above 46% | 2.5% | — | 2.5% | not on both |
| 41.0+ | 2.3% | 2.3% | — | not on both |
| Above 48% | 2.1% | — | 2.1% | not on both |
| Above 50% | 0.4% | — | 0.4% | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [VoteHub](https://votehub.com).

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump's approval rating according to RealClearPolling is equal to or higher than the listed value at 5:00 PM ET on November 6, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market's resolution source will be RealClearPolling's presidential job approval poll average, https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating, specifically the value in the "Approve" column of the "RCP Average" row of the table titled "President Trump Job Approval" as displayed at 5:00 PM ET on the resolution date. Any updates or revisions to the RCP Average published after this time will not be considered, except for corrections of data integrity issues as described below. Changes in the methodology by which RealClearPolling calculates its average will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where RealClearPolling differs from alternative sources.

If the RCP Average is unavailable at 5:00 PM ET on the resolution date, this market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the resolution date. If the RCP Average has not been updated by then, the most recent RCP Average published prior to 5:00 PM ET on the resolution date will be used.

The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/trump-approval-rating-at-least-on-november-6
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/trump-approval-rating-at-least-on-november-6?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtrumpvh?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/trump-approval-rating-at-least-on-november-6

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.