# Trump declares a national emergency by...?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Trump declares a national emergency by...?". Before Apr 1, 2027 leads at 44%. Next is December 31 at 21%. $792K has traded across 5 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T22:13:00Z (1 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Dec 1, 2026
- Volume traded: $792K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 44% | — | 44% | not on both |
| December 31 | 21% | 21% | — | not on both |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 10.8% | — | 8% | not on both |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 7% | — | 7% | not on both |
| November 30 | 7% | 7% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [the White House](https://www.whitehouse.gov), [Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/), [the President of the United States](https://www.whitehouse.gov/).

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump formally declares a national emergency pursuant to the National Emergencies Act between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying declaration must include formal language stating that a national emergency exists and must be issued under the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. § 1621 et seq.). Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, announcements of an intention to declare a national emergency, executive orders that do not formally declare a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act, or other actions that do not declare a national emergency will not qualify.

Renewals, continuations, or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify. Amendments to or expansions of previously existing national emergencies will also not qualify unless they formally declare a new national emergency.

The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official White House publications; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/trump-declares-a-national-emergency-by
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/trump-declares-a-national-emergency-byptptpt-20261027?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnatlemergency?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/trump-declares-a-national-emergency-by

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.