# Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?". December 31 leads at 89.8%. Next is November 30 at 61%. $83K has traded across 3 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 16, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T21:09:00Z (2 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 16, 2026
- Volume traded: $83K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| December 31 | 89.8% | 89.8% |
| November 30 | 61% | 61% |
| November 15 | 6.5% | 6.5% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration declassifies any files pertaining to extraterrestrial life and/or unexplained aerial phenomena which were not previously publicly available between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For purposes of this market, the “Trump administration” includes the Executive Office of the President and all executive branch departments, agencies, and subordinate offices under presidential authority during the Trump presidency, including the Department of Defense and its components.

Announcements of declassifications that are not implemented within this market’s timeframe will not count.

The primary resolution source for declassification will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/trump-declassifies-new-ufo-files-by-2
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/trump-declassifies-new-ufo-files-byptptpt-20261026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/trump-declassifies-new-ufo-files-by-2

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.