# Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan by end of APEC trip?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan by end of APEC trip?". Yes leads at 1.4%. $1K has traded across 1 outcome on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-11T18:48:05Z (1 d ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Dec 1, 2026
- Volume traded: $1K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Yes | 1.4% | 1.4% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.

## Settlement rules

Donald Trump is scheduled to visit China to attend the APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting in Shenzhen on November 18-19, 2026, where he is expected to meet Xi Jinping.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump publicly endorses the People's Republic of China's claim of sovereignty over Taiwan by the end of this visit. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

To qualify, Trump must make an explicit public statement affirming that Taiwan is part of China, that China has sovereignty over Taiwan, or that the United States supports China's claim to Taiwan.

Restating the long-standing United States "One China policy", acknowledging that China holds such a position, noting that the United States does not support Taiwanese independence, or declining to say whether the United States would defend Taiwan will not qualify, as none of these constitutes an endorsement of China's claim.

Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies. A statement issued jointly by the United States and China will qualify if Trump personally endorses it.

The visit will be considered to have ended at the end of the calendar day (China Standard Time) on which Donald Trump physically departs from Chinese territory. No meetings, events, or statements which occur after this time will be considered.

If Donald Trump does not physically enter the terrestrial or maritime territory of China by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/trump-endorses-chinas-claim-to-taiwan-by-end-of-apec-trip
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/trump-endorses-chinas-claim-to-taiwan-by-end-of-apec-trip?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/trump-endorses-chinas-claim-to-taiwan-by-end-of-apec-trip

---
Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.