# Trump impeached and removed before 2028?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Trump impeached and removed before 2028?". Before Jan 1, 2028 leads at 73%. Next is Before Oct 1, 2027 at 68%. $5.4M has traded across 12 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-05T01:25:00Z (2 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Jan 1, 2028
- Volume traded: $5.4M
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 73% | — | 73% | not on both |
| Before Oct 1, 2027 | 68% | — | 68% | not on both |
| Before Aug 1, 2027 | 62% | — | 62% | not on both |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 56% | — | 56% | not on both |
| Before Jun 1, 2027 | 53% | — | 53% | not on both |
| Before May 1, 2027 | 44% | — | 44% | not on both |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 35% | — | 35% | not on both |
| Before his term ends | 25% | — | 25% | not on both |
| Before Mar 1, 2027 | 23% | — | 23% | not on both |
| Yes | 18.2% | 18.2% | — | not on both |
| Before Feb 1, 2027 | 13% | — | 13% | not on both |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 1.5% | — | 1.5% | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [U.S. Senate](https://www.senate.gov/).

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump is impeached and removed from the office of President of the United States by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Impeachment means the U.S. House of Representatives approves one or more articles of impeachment against Donald Trump. Removal means the U.S. Senate votes to convict Donald Trump on one or more articles of impeachment by the two-thirds vote required under the U.S. Constitution, as announced by the presiding officer of the Senate. The conviction will be considered to occur at the time of that announcement. Whip counts, statements of intended votes, and partial vote tallies will not qualify.

This market will resolve to “Yes” upon a qualifying conviction, regardless of when the Senate pronounces judgment, whether it votes on disqualification from future office, whether Donald Trump vacates the office, or any legal challenge to the conviction.

Impeachment without a Senate conviction will not qualify. An acquittal or dismissal of articles of impeachment will not, on its own, resolve this market. A transfer of presidential powers to the Vice President under the 25th Amendment will not qualify and will not count as leaving office.

If Donald Trump formally leaves the office of President of the United States for any reason before a qualifying conviction, this market will immediately resolve to “No”. An announcement of a future resignation does not count as leaving office.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Congress, including Senate roll call votes; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/trump-impeached-and-removed-before-2028
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/trump-impeached-and-removed-before-2028?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtrumpremove?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/trump-impeached-and-removed-before-2028

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.