# Trump removed via 25th Amendment before 2028?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Trump removed via 25th Amendment before 2028?". Before Jan 20, 2029 leads at 20%. Next is Before Jan 1, 2028 at 18%. $221K has traded across 4 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-05T17:06:03Z (just now)
- Expected to resolve by: Jan 1, 2028
- Volume traded: $221K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Before Jan 20, 2029 | 20% | — | 20% | not on both |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 18% | — | 18% | not on both |
| Yes | 7% | 7% | — | not on both |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 5% | — | 5% | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/).

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is formally removed from the office of the President of the United States by means of the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the Vice President becomes Acting President via the process outlined in Section 3 of the 25th Amendment, it will not effect the resolution of this market. Only Trump’s removal from office via the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

If Trump ceases to be POTUS before this market's expiration date for any other reason, this market may immediately resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/trump-removed-via-25th-amendment-before-2028
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/trump-removed-via-25th-amendment-before-2028?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxamend25?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/trump-removed-via-25th-amendment-before-2028

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.