# Tusk out by December 31?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Tusk out by December 31?". Yes leads at 5.5%. $36K has traded across 1 outcome on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-05T01:17:00Z (4 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Jan 1, 2027
- Volume traded: $36K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Yes | 5.5% | 5.5% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Tusk ceases to be Prime Minister of the Republic of Poland for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Donald Tusk's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Tusk and the government of Poland; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/tusk-out-by-december-31
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/tusk-out-by-december-31-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/tusk-out-by-december-31

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.