# UEFA Nations League: Group A4 Winner: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "UEFA Nations League: Group A4 Winner". Portugal leads at 99%. Next is Spain at 80.5%. $89K has traded across 12 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 2, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-13T07:46:40Z (11 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Dec 2, 2026
- Volume traded: $89K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: sports

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Portugal | 99% | — | 99% | not on both |
| Spain | 80.5% | 80.5% | — | not on both |
| France | 56% | 56% | — | not on both |
| Netherlands | 55% | 55% | — | not on both |
| Italy | 37% | 37% | — | not on both |
| Greece | 25.4% | 25.4% | — | not on both |
| England | 19% | 19% | — | not on both |
| Germany | 18.5% | 18.5% | — | not on both |
| Norway | 15% | — | 15% | not on both |
| Belgium | 9.9% | 9.9% | — | not on both |
| Denmark | 9% | — | 9% | not on both |
| Wales | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [ESPN](https://espn.com), [UEFA](https://www.uefa.com).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/uefa-nations-league-group-a4-winner
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/uefa-nations-league-2026-27-group-a3-winner?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxuefanlgroupwin?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/uefa-nations-league-group-a4-winner

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.