# UFC Fight Night: Lucas Brennan vs. Austin Bashi (Featherweight, Main Card): prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "UFC Fight Night: Lucas Brennan vs. Austin Bashi (Featherweight, Main Card)". Austin Bashi leads at 64%. Next is Brennan in Round 1 at 59.5%. $5K has traded across 20 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 8, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T22:46:00Z (1 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 8, 2026
- Volume traded: $5K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: sports

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Austin Bashi | 64% | — | 64% | not on both |
| Brennan in Round 1 | 59.5% | 59.5% | — | not on both |
| Bashi in Round 1 | 50% | 50% | — | not on both |
| Bashi in Round 2 | 50% | 50% | — | not on both |
| Bashi in Round 3 | 50% | 50% | — | not on both |
| Bashi to win by KO/TKO? | 50% | 50% | — | not on both |
| Brennan in Round 2 | 50% | 50% | — | not on both |
| Brennan in Round 3 | 50% | 50% | — | not on both |
| Brennan to win by KO/TKO? | 50% | 50% | — | not on both |
| Decision or Draw | 50% | 50% | — | not on both |
| Ends before Round 2? | 50% | 50% | — | not on both |
| Ends before Round 3? | 50% | 50% | — | not on both |
| Fight to Go the Distance? | 50% | 50% | — | not on both |
| Fight won by decision? | 50% | 50% | — | not on both |
| Fight won by KO/TKO? | 50% | 50% | — | not on both |
| Fight won by submission? | 50% | 50% | — | not on both |
| O/U 0.5 Rounds | 50% | 50% | — | not on both |
| O/U 1.5 Rounds | 50% | 50% | — | not on both |
| O/U 2.5 Rounds | 50% | 50% | — | not on both |
| Lucas Brennan | 46.4% | 49.5% | 37% | 12.5 pts |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [ufc.com](https://www.ufc.com/events).
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [ESPN](https://www.espn.com), [DAZN](https://www.dazn.com/en-US), [Tapology](https://www.tapology.com/).

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve to "Lucas Brennan" if Lucas Brennan is officially declared the winner of the fight against Austin Bashi at UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady, scheduled for November 7, 2026.

It will resolve to "Austin Bashi" if Austin Bashi is officially declared the winner.

If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 21, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/ufc-fight-night-lucas-brennan-vs-austin-bashi-featherweight-main-card
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/ufc-lbrenn-aus7-2026-11-07?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxufcfight?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/ufc-fight-night-lucas-brennan-vs-austin-bashi-featherweight-main-card

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.