# UK GDP growth in Q4 2026 (QoQ)?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "UK GDP growth in Q4 2026 (QoQ)?". Above 0.5% leads at 97.5%. Next is Above 1.5% at 97.5%. $486K has traded across 39 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 12, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-15T05:21:41Z (14 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Feb 12, 2027
- Volume traded: $486K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: economics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Above 0.5% | 97.5% | — | 97.5% | not on both |
| Above 1.5% | 97.5% | — | 97.5% | not on both |
| Above 2.0% | 97.5% | — | 97.5% | not on both |
| Above 2.5% | 97.5% | — | 97.5% | not on both |
| Above 3.0% | 97.5% | — | 97.5% | not on both |
| Above 3.5% | 97.5% | — | 97.5% | not on both |
| Above 4.0% | 97.5% | — | 97.5% | not on both |
| Above 4.5% | 95% | — | 95% | not on both |
| Above 5.0% | 95% | — | 95% | not on both |
| Above 5.5% | 95% | — | 95% | not on both |
| Above 0.0% | 86.7% | — | 76% | not on both |
| 2.1% to 2.5% | 86.6% | — | 86.6% | not on both |
| Above -0.4% | 77.8% | — | 87% | not on both |
| Above -0.2% | 72.5% | — | 83% | not on both |
| Above 6.0% | 61% | — | 61% | not on both |
| Above 1.0% | 57.3% | — | 17% | not on both |
| 0.2–0.3% | 35.5% | 35.5% | — | not on both |
| Above 0.6% | 24% | — | 24% | not on both |
| 0.4–0.5% | 20.5% | 20.5% | — | not on both |
| Above 1.2% | 16% | — | 16% | not on both |
| Above 0.8% | 15% | — | 15% | not on both |
| 0.6–0.7% | 12% | 12% | — | not on both |
| Negative | 11.1% | 11.1% | — | not on both |
| 1.6% to 2.0% | 9.9% | — | 9.9% | not on both |
| 0.0–0.1% | 7% | 7% | — | not on both |
| 0.8–0.9% | 3.5% | 3.5% | — | not on both |
| 2.6% to 3.0% | 3.2% | — | 3.2% | not on both |
| 1.0%+ | 2.2% | 2.2% | — | not on both |
| 0.1% to 0.5% | 1.8% | — | 1.8% | not on both |
| 3.1% to 3.5% | 1.7% | — | 1.7% | not on both |
| 4.6% to 5.0% | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| 3.6% to 4.0% | 0.9% | — | 0.9% | not on both |
| 4.1% to 4.5% | 0.9% | — | 0.9% | not on both |
| 0.0% or Below | 0.8% | — | 0.8% | not on both |
| 1.1% to 1.5% | 0.6% | — | 0.6% | not on both |
| 0.6% to 1.0% | 0.5% | — | 0.5% | not on both |
| 5.1% to 5.5% | 0.4% | — | 0.4% | not on both |
| 6.1% or Above | 0.4% | — | 0.4% | not on both |
| 5.6% to 6.0% | 0.1% | — | 0.1% | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product).

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q4 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases

If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/uk-gdp-growth-in-q4-2026-qoq
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/uk-gdp-growth-in-q4-2026-qoq?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnomgdpgrowth?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/uk-gdp-growth-in-q4-2026-qoq

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.